The Simpson’s Paradox when analyzing data and taking decisions

When we want to study relationships in data (eg, in observations of the world), we can plot, cross-tabulate, or model that data. When we do this, we might come across cases where the relationships we see from two different views of a single dataset lead us to opposing conclusions. These are cases of Simpson’s Paradox.

Finding these cases can help us understand our data better and discover interesting relationships. This article gives some examples of where these cases happen, discusses how and why they happen, and suggests ways to automatically detect these situations in your own data.

Simpson’s Paradox refers to a situation where you believe you understand the direction of a relationship between two variables, but when you consider an additional variable, that direction appears to reverse.


Simpson’s Paradox happens because disaggregation of the data (e.g., splitting it into subgroups) can cause certain subgroups to have an imbalanced representation compared to other subgroups. This might be due to the relationship between the variables, or simply due to the way that the data has been partitioned into subgroups.

Here is an example of this, with a scientific evidence showing that unvaccinated people are more likely to develop severe COVID-19 and die, contrary to claim in viral social media posts about Germany data.

Top 10 Cognitive Computing Trends

Cognitive computing is the amalgamation of cognitive science and is established on the basic premise of simulating the generic thought process.

Cognitive computing trends are a consistent flow of learning techniques that combines many disruptive technologies like AI and machine learning wrapped with sentiment analysis and contextual awareness to fix day-to-day problems, just like humans. These techniques employ different processes such as data mining, recognition of patterns, and language processing. Today top cognitive computing trends are experiencing a dramatic change as companies are getting more engaged in developing Artificial Intelligence (AI) and are competing in the market to get a step ahead. Cognitive computing trends can help us in realizing the potential of AI as it helps in imitating the activity of the human brain. 

Emerging top cognitive computing trends can be useful in developing an automated system for solving complex problems by itself. Here in this article, we will discuss the top 10 cognitive computing trends for 2023.

Conneting the dots.

Steve Jobs has left an indelible mark in our society. An icon of business and culture, the Apple co-founder was a public figure who remained enigmatic. In his 2005 Stanford speech, he speaks about "faith", about how one should trust that "it will all work out eventually".  

I have often think about this. 

About how what I do on a daily basis will amount to something in my life. 

How to trust that the everyday steps will lead to something worthy, keeping within my tenets and vision of the "good world". I am a lucky, privileged person and often praise and thank for the life I have. Even if  (as Jobs said) sometimes life hits you in the head with a brick.

Yep. When unexpected, unwanted, unplanned happens it is only human to feel frustrated and angry. It is OK to feel NOT OK.  It is OK not to be positive about what is going on, about to outlook. 

It has been 10 years in this blog and many bricks have hit my head, my life.

And I have learned to be that kind of person. I have learned to accept that often I've been unable to understand why (bad) things happen that way they do, struggling or even failing to reconcile negative emotions.

But I also have learned to believe that "it is impossible to connect the dots looking forward". Yeap. "you can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backward. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something — your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever."

Yes, trust your dots, trust your tenets. Be a good person.

Accept the tears and the bad days. And then, get up. Do your best, and keep looking, keep trying. Keep looking until you find what ever you feel you need, whatever you feel you still need to continue searching for. 

Don’t settle. Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

Learning to accept tough situations in life

No one ever promised that life would be fair. In fact, life is often unfair.

Thus, after saying so many times this to many to other people, I am writing it down (again!) so to remember what have learned about how to go through tough situations in life. 

It is never easy or solved by using a single formula. So, here I am once again. Saying it out laud. Repeat. Writing it as many times as needed. Repeat.  

1. Acknowledge the situation
Sometimes denial is what happens when in face of a tough situation. However, the longer the problem is avoid, the longer it will take to address it. So, acknowledge the situation, regardless of how I feel about. When changing the situation is not possible, acknowledging it is helpful to move on.

2. Develop a plan
Many times I have learned that there are more options than I might have think. 

Spending time thinking about how to respond to a tough situation - even when is impossible to fix it - has help me to develop a plan to cope with it. 

3. Seek for help 
Asking for help is a sign of strength and courage. Not being afraid to ask for help is key - whether some practical help, like a friend to proofread a resume, or emotional support from family. I have learned not to expect others to know what I need - sometimes they don't even know if I need something as they suppose me strong enough to deal with all.

4. Changing what you can
Identify what is within my control. When fired because of a boss that was unfair, it takes sometime to dwelling with anger. But it is important not to waste too much time on that and instead, taking action and beginning applying for new jobs. The sooner the better.

5. Identifying what you can’t change
Imposing my self not to waste time and energy trying to change things I can’t change.  I can’t change anyone and I can’t change past. 

Even if I believe one is entitled to spend time thinking about the past or even wishing things were different- at a certain given moment enough is enough. 

Accept the situation is unfair and tough. It's shitty. Don’t pretend it’s not. 

But don’t waste more time on that. Accept and move forward. 

6. Developing skills to deal with feelings
Just because one acknowledges a situation that is unfair, doesn’t mean it won’t hurt. Dealing with sadness, anger, frustration, and disappointment is tough.
Coping with all difficult feelings is key. Taking care of the mind, body and soul. 

Eat healthy, doing exercise, sleeping and resting. Strategies to deal with complex feelings - from therapeutic help, time with loved ones, writing and participating in fun activities are core components of the healing process.

7. Focus on the gain
Something good can come out of even the worst situations. If not, having survived a tough situation is already a gain. Perhaps becoming stronger or maybe, simply learning a valuable life lesson. Whatever it is, it is a learning experience that will probably help some way later in life.

Why having fun is the secret to a healthier life

If you're not having fun, you're not fully living, says science journalist Catherine Price, arguing persuasively that our always-on, tech-addicted lifestyles have led us to obsess over intangible concepts such as happiness while obscuring the fact that real happiness lies in the everyday experience of fun. 

We often think of fun as indulgent, even immature and selfish. We claim to not have time for it, even as we find hours a day for what Price calls Fake Fun bingeing on television, doomscrolling the news, or posting photos to social media, all in hopes of filling some of the emptiness we feel inside..

Weaving together scientific research with personal experience, Price reveals in this TED Talk the surprising mental, physical, and cognitive benefits of fun, and offers a practical, personalized plan for how we can achieve better screen/life balance and attract more True Fun into our daily lives-without feeling overwhelmed.

How do we see?

The visual system takes up a very large part of the brain—some say that as much as 30% of prime cortical real estate is specialized for visual processing in humans (Orban et al., 2004). This tells us that vision is important for human survival; language, touch, and audition, for example, get a far smaller slice of the cortical pie. 

So, what happens to all visual information? 

All the different parts of your eyes work together to help you see.

First, light passes through the cornea (the clear front layer of the eye). The cornea is shaped like a dome and bends light to help the eye focus. Some of this light enters the eye through an opening called the pupil (PYOO-pul). The iris (the colored part of the eye) controls how much light the pupil lets in.

Next, light passes through the lens (a clear inner part of the eye). The lens works together with the cornea to focus light correctly on the retina.
When light hits the retina (a light-sensitive layer of tissue at the back of the eye), special cells called photoreceptors turn the light into electrical signals.
These electrical signals travel from the retina through the optic nerve to the brain. Then the brain turns the signals into the images you see.
Your eyes also need tears to work correctly. Tears keep your eyes wet and smooth, and help focus light so you can see clearly. They also protect your eyes from infections and irritating things, like dirt and dust.

Every time you blink, a thin layer of tears called a “tear film” spreads across the surface of your cornea (the clear outer layer of the eye). Tears come from glands above your eyes, then drain into your tear ducts (small holes in the inner corners of your eyes) and down through your nose.

Learn more at ask a biologist

Truth and courage aren't always comfortable

Brene Brown is a research professor at the University of Houston, and a visiting professor in management at the University of Texas at Austin. She has spent decades studying courage, vulnerability, shame, and empathy, author of six #1 best sellers books.

She hosts of the weekly Spotify original podcasts Unlocking Us and Dare to Lead 
hosting conversations with change-catalysts, culture-shifters, and more than a few troublemakers who are innovating, creating, and daring to lead.

“Daring greatly" is about being brave and afraid every minute of the day at the exact same time. Vulnerability sounds like truth and feels like courage. 

Truth and courage aren't always comfortable, but they're never weakness.

Your brain is unique ... and so are you !

I have many times written about neuroscience and coaching.

Neuroscience, as the study of the brain and the nervous system and how these systems function physiologically to transform sensory stimuli into output, actions and/or reactions is key to understanding coaching, another transformative process of guiding and enabling change within a coachee for positive outcomes.

Coaching the Brain: Practical Applications of Neuroscience to Coaching
is a book written in 2019 by experienced coaches Joseph O'Connor and Andrea Lages that specifically addresses the question: 'How can we use our knowledge of the brain to help ourselves and others to learn, change, and develop?'. 

How to apply insights from the neuroscience research in a practical way, in the fields of personal development, coaching and cognitive therapy. Accessible and practical, it begins with an overview of how the brain works along with an explanation of how our brain changes due to our actions and thoughts, illuminating how these habits can be changed through neuroplasticity. Understanding the neuroscience of goals and mental models helps us to work with and change them, and clarity about emotions and the emotional basis of values can help achieve happiness. The book also explores the key lessons we can take from neuroscience for high performance and leadership. Eminently accessible, each part of the book ends with a summary and set of key points to enable you with new tools to help yourself and others create better futures. As a whole, the book will provide you with a new respect for the depth and complexity of your thinking and emotions. 

From detection with ML to understanding human behavior and its in-depth complexities.

What a fantastic article at Scientific American! 

Opening question:

Do your facial movements broadcast your emotions to other people? If you think the answer is yes, think again. 

A question that has been under contentious debate, with some experts maintain that people around the world make specific, recognizable faces that express certain emotions, such as smiling in happiness, scowling in anger and gasping with widened eyes in fear. They point to hundreds of studies and often cite Charles Darwin’s 1872 book "The Expression of the Emotions in Man and Animals".

Applications of machine and deep learning have shown quite interesting questions, with an increasing number of researchers urging for thinking more seriously and moving beyond the essentialist ideas of "detecting emotions".

Mistakes are part of the scientific process - and opportunities for discovery.

Facebook Doesn’t Know What It Does With Your Data, Or Where It Goes

 

"We do not have an adequate level of control and explainability over how our systems use data,” Facebook engineers say in leaked document.

We all knew and now is confirmed.

Women in Data Science - on how I am a proud community facilitator

Deeply happy and thankful for all the support and energy received from Isabel Pedrosa, Alexandre Gomes da Silva, Liliana Ferreira, Marisa Figueiredo, Sandra Barão, Filipa Dos Santos Rodrigues, Nuno Santos, Guilherme Ramos Pereira, Coimbra Business School | ISCAC and DSPA - Data Science Portuguese Association. 

Awesome moments, sharing and learning from all to all.
Be the change you want to see in the world. 

March 24, 2021.

Artificial Intelligence for Children

A toolkit designed to help companies develop trustworthy artificial intelligence products for children and youth.

Click to download from World Economic Forum 

How memory works? Tips for educators

Memory is the ongoing process of information retention over time. 

Because it makes up the very framework through which we make sense of and take action within the present, its importance goes without saying. 

But how exactly does it work? And how can teachers and educators apply a better understanding of its inner workings to their own teaching? 

Research in cognitive science provides the answer to these questions: memory operates according to a "dual-process," where more unconscious, more routine thought processes (known as "System 1") interact with more conscious, more problem-based thought processes (known as "System 2"). 

At each of these two levels, in turn, there are the processes through which we "get information in" (encoding), how we hold on to it (storage), and and how we "get it back out" (retrieval or recall). With a basic understanding of how these components of memory work together, it is possible to maximize learning by knowing how much new information to introduce, when to introduce it, and how to sequence assignments that will both reinforce the retention of facts (System 1) and build toward critical, creative thinking (System 2).

Check out a more detailed explanation at Harvard Center for Teaching and Learning

2021 - one more year of pandemic (in images)

While 2021 was marked by challenges, business and society are setting their sights on sustainable, inclusive growth amid the ongoing economic recovery.

But what does that look like? Art can reinforce or enhance coverage of a world in flux, so at the closer of 2021, McKinsey’s designers set for a view on the images that helped bring insights to life. How to capture, in a single photograph, the effects of the ongoing pandemic? What art best expresses the power of digital or the interplay of sustainability, inclusion, and growth?

Here’s McKinsey Global Publishing’s visual take on 2021. Read on for a new lens on the standout moments that made it unique.